Peering Through the Smoke.

Diplomacy has failed. What awaits us?

Preamble.

Today has seen another meeting between Russia and the US, the previous impasse continuing. Whilst so little appears to be happening, there are certain goings-on that do merit mention and give us a good indication of where things are likely to go.

Stoking the Fires of War.

Those who like to keep abreast with current affairs will be very aware of the tensions in Eastern Europe, yet recent days have seen new developments that do need a little investigation. One of these is that diplomatically, this is now strictly an affair between Moscow and Washington. For all the talk of NATO, the US is as ever at the helm, putting all its weight behind an argument that it claims is the fault of Russia. Blinken has made numerous threats during his European roadshow with the US making pledge after pledge to support the Ukrainian government and its armed forces. That the Ukraine previously had to beg for handouts is now a thing of the past, money, arms and training being in apparently limitless supply. Added to this is that the Ukraine is not a NATO member state and has no real prospects of ever being so. Quite why the White House is willing to go to such pains over a thoroughly ruined country will become apparent later.

Obeying Uncle Sam.

Both Estonia and Lithuania have pledged to ship Javelin and Stinger missiles to Kiev, yet what is even more interesting is that Washington has given them permission to do so. Quite why these nations have to ask permission to donate them after paying their own money begs another question. With all the pressure placed upon them by Washington to spend 2% of their GDP on ‘defense’, how can they be sovereign nations if they have to request approval from the US?

Lighting the Fire.

The next matter of concern is that with the Ukraine being nothing to do with NATO, why are member states rushing to aid it? The civil war that was started by a US-led coup has been raging for nearly eight years, yet all anyone has done to date is place sanctions and throw insults at Moscow. Be it missiles, artillery shells or the three Mi-17 helicopters the US is sending, NATO’s member states are ensuring there is no shortage of assets should a war break out. In contrast to this, the civilian population of Yemen has been bombed to oblivion over recent years, yet other than sell more bombs to Riyadh, the West has done nothing. Likewise in Myanmar, the Rohingya people have been mercilessly persecuted, but other than a few headlines on CNN and few sanctions, nothing has been done. Returning to Europe, the truth is that over seven years, the government in Kiev has ignored the Minsk Agreement completely, used artillery against residential areas daily and allowed extremists to infiltrate every part of its society. With all that, there must be something else behind this madness.

The German Question.

Germany might have been the reason that the US first put boots on the ground in Europe, yet it has learnt the hard way that war is not the route to success. Whilst not admitting as much, Berlin is very aware of not only the causes of this situation, but the possible ramifications should war break out. It has even gone as far as forbidding Estonia from transferring German-made weapons to the Ukraine. At a time of global challenges, Germany neither needs to take part in a war or have one going on in its neighborhood. The fact that the RAF flights to Kiev with missiles avoided German airspace is very notable, and should NATO actually commit to fighting Russia, it is very doubtful whether the Bundestag would want to get involved at all.

Sanctions.

No article concerning the US would be complete without making mention of sanctions. Washington has repeatedly said that it will implement more draconian sanctions than ever before should Russia invade, yet with Washington moving the goalposts as it does, one could rightly suppose that it may implement these measures should Russia not move its forces away from the border. As covered in previous articles, Russia has had time to prepare for this eventuality, the effects of these being far less than the White House would like. Washington has also sanctioned four Ukrainians, two of them members of parliament over recent days. It accuses them of attempting to ‘create instability in advance of a Russian invasion’. The fact that the US is sanctioning members of the opposition in the Verkhovna Rada is blatant interference and an insult in every way to the word democracy.

Security For All.

One of the demands made by Russia is that NATO rolls back, yet the US (not NATO) has absolutely refused to even consider this idea. Russia is now backed into a corner, yet for all its previous diplomacy and flexibility, unlike any situation facing the US during the last fifty years, it is not backing down. Moscow has seen NATO for what it is and has demanded that the alliance leave the Ukraine as well as Romania (which pledged today not to fight Russia over the Ukraine) and Bulgaria. These security guarantees came not as requests but as demands, yet with the US’ past performances, most notably with Iran, you cannot with security guarantee whether the US will stick to its word or not.

Summary.

As this situation develops, the clouds start to clear and we begin to see things for what they really are. Nearly eight years after Nuland et al were handing out cookies at Maidan, the country that the Ukraine was is today scarcely recognizable. Many say it is a political football being kicked by both the East and West, yet when viewed objectively, it is being kicked against Russia’s back door. Not only that, for all the talk of an alliance, it is only one player that is doing the kicking. Germany has learnt the lessons of the past, yet its neighbors under the command of White House are following the same script as has been seen in the Middle East on numerous occasions. The arming and training of useful idiots (but only with Uncle Sam’s blessing) plays into Washington’s hands. Obama invested $5bn in a color revolution, yet with the potential involved with current events, if there is not a revolution against transatlantic warmongering, Europe may pay a far greater price…

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