Blowback.

This is a queue in Odessa, but this has become a familiar situation for millions of everyday Ukrainians.

Preamble.

It has been two months since Russia started its Special Operation in the Ukraine. In both the weeks preceding the conflict and thereafter, the West has done nothing but predict doom and gloom regarding Moscow’s prospects concerning the war as well as its economic future. Certain facts are now making themselves felt meaning that rather than the West going on the diplomatic warpath, a war that it has started is now biting back.

Drang nach Westen.

For all the talk regarding Russia’s efforts grinding to a halt, one one only has to look to the real news to see that not only is Moscow’s operation going to plan, it is being carried out in the way that Russia wants it to develop. It has to be said that at first glance a country such as the Russian Federation could have made more progress and faster, yet when we remember that Moscow wishes to reduce civilian casualties to a minimum in the face of a de facto xxx western nation being given limitless supplies of weaponry, it becomes understandable why things have not happened sooner. After all of this however, although the West wants its war with Russia, this is as much about finance as it is about fighting.

Rumors of the Ruble.

Even after its value had steadily declined un the days before Russia made its move, once wheels were rolling, the western financial establishment made every effort to see that the ruble rolled downhill. Headlines abounded stating that Russia’s financial collapse was imminent and that the Kremlin had signed its own death warrant. The media has however forgotten to backtrack, failing to mention that the ruble has slowly crawled back up to pre-war levels, this being not only due to western weaknesses, but also through very intelligent policymaking in Moscow. What is equally noteworthy is the fact that even though the Ukrainian military is being knocked from pillar to post by the Russian military, the value of the Hrvinya has hardly slipped at all. Again this has to be down to manipulation of the markets, yet one has to remember that even though the huge deficit that both the country and its backers is being hidden, it is still waiting to come into play.

Hot Air, Hot Water.

A US-led Europe has taken every opportunity to lambast Moscow, yet it knew as well as the Kremlin that Russian gas is the fuel in its tank, many showing surprise that Russia continues to supply those nations that wish it so much ill fortune. Russia’s continued supply is one matter, yet a far more profound move has been that payment is now demanded in rubles. European nations, in spite of fighting tooth and nail in some cases to implement the euro decades ago have however been very happy to use the dollar for their overseas business in the years since then. This has now come to an end in a very dramatic fashion, those nations pushing American interests and the dollar for so long suddenly being the first nations to take part in Russia’s pioneering new dedollarization program.

Guns not Butter.

It does not take a genius to realize that not only is Kiev’s predicament bad, but it gets worse by the day, not only for the military, but also for the civilian population. Recent days have seen kilometer-long queues at fuel stations in Odessa and elsewhere as Russian strikes against both refineries and infrastructure start to really cause logistical issues across the country. At the same time, the country (or what is left of it) is attempting to export all the agricultural foodstuffs it can, 20 million tons of grain, maize, oil crops and seeds along with livestock having been shipped through the port of Izmail along the Danube to Romania since hostilities began. In exchange, arms are being imported, be these the gifts that the West is publicly availing, or from other undeclared sources. Chairman Mao once said that ‘power grows out of the barrel of a gun’, yet it is only guns keeping Zelenskiy in power, he exporting the seeds that the country’s agricultural sector so desperately needs.

Lowdown and Tall Stories.

Ever since the US began the blame game against Moscow whilst Victoria Nuland was handing out cookies in Maidan Square, the entire narrative has revolved around not only harming Russian interests but also telling the world how the country would suffer if the West ramped up the pressure for real. The last six months have most certainly proved two decades of tall stories very wrong indeed. Not only were we all told that Russia would simultaneously lose the war and go bankrupt, headlines also stated that this was Putin’s last stand. Notwithstanding the ceaseless media barrage over this time, for all the talk of Moscow and Kiev, this is another American war using Ukrainian servicemen to catch Washington’s bullets, yet for all the aid that is being supplied and the wishful thinking on the part of western pundits, it is a war that neither Kiev nor the West can hope to win.

Lowdown and Showdown.

The stories of imagined Ukrainian glory and western magnanimity still abound, yet matters of this importance cannot be manipulated forever. Little by little, the truth regarding both Russian reasoning and Kiev’s conduct is becoming apparent, the western public questioning how it is that Russia is playing a long game whilst in the West, the retail sector is short of so many goods. There is however a twist to all of this. The West in its numerous endeavors against the enemies of its own creation always gambles on ensuring that others are deprived, yet in contrast to countries such as Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan, Moscow can leverage just as hard in return. In the case of Russia, western governments, both in word and deed have wagered everything on the Kremlin having nothing, and in doing so have ensured that if the Kremlin has something, the western push leaves them with nothing. It therefore hardly comes a surprise that Washington and its allies are still trying to find a solution for their lost cause.

The Black Hole.

The solution we see before is at present is very simple. As the Ukrainian Armed Forced crumble before Russian advances, the only real answer that NATO can give is to increase the level of assistance in terms of money and arms. Over a period of three months, the Ukraine has turned from a beggar state into a black hole, yet the more resources that are funneled into it, the greater the risk of an ever-widening vortex consuming all those around it. Rather than the front pages telling us what the Ukraine is achieving, all we hear of now is efforts on the part of the West, but as ever more arms fall into the hands of Russian and Donbass forces, the bitter truth across the country is that NATO is to an alarming degree arming those who are fighting Kiev. The first stories regarding captured weapons caused a degree of mirth, yet when as days have turned into weeks and then months, an incredible quantity of arms are now being used against the forces they were supposed to arm, this becoming a wholly unsustainable situation for both the West and Kiev. Two months have given the world a plethora of wartime photos, yet what they do not show is that a failing war is causing potentially even greater failure for the western nations who have supported it.

Summary.

In the space of two months, we have seen western bravado turn to an eastern bullishness. According to western sources this war was supposed to be Putin’s last stand, but looking at how the situation is developing both in the East and West, he may be the last man standing. There was always the question of the West pushing east, yet when the East pushed west, not only could the West not answer, but the East begged serious questions in return. Be it UK fuel trucks in Italy, munitions in Poland or Turkish drones passing through Romania, NATO is doing its everything yet the results add up to nearly nothing, even the ruble rubbishing western efforts to destroy it.

One has to pity the normal Ukrainian people, the prospects facing them looking more dire every day. Goebbels famously said that ‘We can do without butter, but, despite all our love of peace, not without arms. One cannot shoot with butter, but with guns.’, yet even more importantly, Margaret Thatcher once stated that ‘The Soviets put guns over butter, but we put almost everything over guns.’ The awkward truth today is that it is the enemies of the former Soviets such as the UK who are pumping arms into the Ukraine whilst Kiev exports foodstuffs, Zelenskiy himself creating the conditions for a potential new Holodomor.

Washington took a gamble in its Eastern European endeavors, yet today with Kiev being given limitless resources, the Ukraine is akin to a bad gambler, every loss giving him another chance. The gifts it gives to Kiev are increasingly found in Russian hands, yet for all the West’s aspirations, the greatest gift is that Washington’s vassals is slowly dragging it down in the face of a resurgent Russia. We have all seen tales concerning the Ghost of Kiev, yet it is Kiev that is slowly turning the West into a ghost of its former self…

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