Preamble.
Recent days have seen the US and NATO refusing to even consider Moscow’s security demands, this meaning that Eastern Europe now finds itself in a very precarious situation indeed. Whilst Moscow, Kiev and Washington all have plans for that arena, certain eyes are now being focused on Russia basing military assets in the Caribbean and Latin America. This article is going to look at what this may involve and what it could mean.
Cuba Missile Crisis 2.0?
The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 is generally seen as a climbdown by Khrushchev, yet what many fail to realize is that it was a Soviet response to Washington stationing
nuclear-capable Jupiter missiles in Turkey. This incident is now relegated to the history books, yet there are two factors here that ought to be borne in mind. The first is that relations between Moscow and Washington have never been worse than they are today. This is due to the US having been able act unchecked for over thirty years with no opposition or blowback regarding its actions. With nobody stateside today with the statesmanship of previous times, the western push eastwards has finally pushed up against Russia. The Bear, patient as it is, has now reached the point where it has given up on the absolute absence of western statecraft; it is simply not going to budge through either diplomacy or threat, Moscow seeing current actions as being identical to those in Turkey sixty years ago.
The second is the politicians themselves. Putin is documented in this article, his attitude and demeanor making him a far stronger leader than Krushchev was. Biden is quite another matter, his goofs and screw-ups making him a laughing stock before he even ran for the White House. Washington is effectively run by minions, he being the fall guy when everything turns sour.
Cold War 2.0?
With the possibility, and it still remains only a possibility of Russia basing various assets in the Latin American region, it means that the world most certainly has returned to a Cold War in hotter climes. With diplomacy dead in the water and America doing as it pleases in Europe, there would be more than adequate justification for the Russian Armed Forces to play Uncle Sam at his own game. With the last week of negotiations regarding NATO having been carried out by Washington, we now face the reality that the Atlantic Alliance is nothing more than the Pentagon’s foreign legion, remedial measures being necessary to get Biden, Blinken et al to see sense. If that means pointing nukes at the American homeland, so be it, logic and dialogue being of no proven use whatsoever.
A Caribbean Context.
Before we look at where Russia may choose to base itself, we have to look at the implications of a new Russian presence in the region.
Over recent years, the Russian military has undergone a huge overhaul, new equipment being fielded in all areas. Vladimir Putin presented a new range of missiles back in 2018 whilst new submarines and ships have been leaving shipyards with increasing frequency. There are many projects still on the drawing board, yet an equal number are now in production and entering service.
Missiles.
For the sake of simplicity, this article will look at three ground-based systems that are most relevant to this scenario.
Avangard.
With an alleged speed of more than Mach 10 and a range of up to four thousand miles, the Avangard system would present a very great threat to the continental US. A nuclear-capable system, it could devastate any target, and with its hypersonic speed, there would be very little warning of its arrival.
Sarmat.
As a replacement for the older Satan system, the Sarmat is another new superheavy missile, this being a much larger MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle) than the previous Avangard. This means it can deliver multiple warheads or even missiles (Avangard included) up to twelve thousand miles.
Iskander.
We then come to the better-known Iskander, with a range of up to three hundred miles at a speed of up to Mach six.
All three of these systems, which only make up a fraction of Russia’s missile arsenal are capable of carrying nuclear warheads should they be required.
The Iskander is only really of any use being launched from Cuba, yet the other two systems have an almost global reach.
Vessels in Venezuela.
Whilst Russia does not have the number of vessels the Soviet Union once did, the vessels is uses are great advancements of their predecessors. Whilst only having one aircraft carrier, the Russian modus operandum does not usually necessitate its use. The smaller vessels that make up the backbone of the Russian Navy are green-water vessels used in coastal defense rather than the larger blue-water fleets favored by its western counterparts. They are in many cases fitted by missile systems however, meaning they can punch way above their weight.
Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0, 3.0, 4.0?
We now have to look at the countries that may host Russian installations. The three candidates that are in the public eye are Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, all having fallen victim to US aggression in the past. Whilst the last two are of use, it is Cuba that offers Russia the most potential regarding missiles, at its closest point being a little over one hundred miles from the southernmost point of Florida. The other two would make ideal bases for ships and submarines, their being farther away from the US to not be subject to surprise attacks, yet close enough to be not more than a day’s sailing from where Russia may want them to be. Moreover, the stationing of airborne assets such as reconnaissance aircraft would also wake the American administration up. Over the last couple of years, the US has been flying all kinds of hardware right along Russia’s borders, and with bases on the other side of the Atlantic, this would give Moscow the opportunity to fly ‘dummy bombing runs’ on American cities as US B-52s have been doing against Kaliningrad of late. Should Russian assets start doing this, the furore in Washington will be immeasurably greater than during the Kennedy administration, yet with NATO swarming all Europe, it ought not complain.
Headwinds.
Should Russia even think of setting up camp on the other side of the Atlantic, the White House will go into fits. What most people forget is that the ‘diplomatic corps’ of today is immeasurably different to that of the Kennedy era, the US expecting to do as it pleases where it pleases, yet should others do the same, it goes into meltdown. It is impossible to compare Kennedy with Biden, the America of the sixties being ruled by a president whilst today Biden is a dithering figurehead who has an army of talking heads and faceless executives to do his bidding for him. The fact that another nation is actually copying the decades-long policies from Washington will not be missed by the White House – yet neither will it or the media remind the public of the fact. With the Caribbean region being as far away from Russian as it is will be a logistical challenge for Russia, and you can guarantee the US Navy will do everything it can to hinder shipping. Should the US government attempt to ‘quarantine’ shipping as it did in 1962, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that westbound shipping could receive attention from the Russian Navy should Moscow see fit.
Summary.
This idea has not yet been fully evaluated by the Russian government, yet with the US crawling all over Europe wearing the NATO flag, Russia may want to play Washington at its own game. The Bear making its way to sunnier climes from its snowy cave is certainly a very long journey, and one that Uncle Sam will doubtlessly want to make as difficult as possible, yet with the global situation being what it is, for all the potential pitfalls, there are obvious advantages from the Kremlin’s standpoint. The US is now dominating Europe and most European governments seem to love it leaving Russia and a select few wise neighboring administrations wondering where it will all end up. For all the missiles that can be aimed from Cuba, an equal number can lurk in the depths off America’s coast, the nightmare that Washington has caused in Europe now crossing the Atlantic to haunt it in return. If Brussels et al want to boogie with Uncle Sam, that’s their business; Russia might just want to do the Merengue in Managua if it means that he can play America at its own game…
The van says… 
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