A Ruined Land.

A country in ruins, but will it rise like a phoenix from the ashes?

Preamble.

Today we are seeing happenings in the Ukraine that cause untold hardship, pain and destruction, a once-proud country slowly suffering a slow destruction, yet to a very great degree, this is not the fault of Russian forces. Much of the havoc that we see on TV screens is being wrought by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and National Guard units rather than by Moscow’s operations. This article will look at what is happening, why it has happened like this and the how this will affect the country once hostilities have ended.

Previous Predictions.

After the bombing of Dresden in February 1945, Winston Churchill famously stated that

‘It seems to me that the moment has come when the question of bombing of German cities simply for the sake of increasing the terror, though under other pretexts, should be reviewed. Otherwise we shall come into control of an utterly ruined land…’

Even after the atrocities that had mounted during that conflict, the British Prime Minister saw that Germany would soon be conquered, and with the war over, it would be peacetime that would have to make right the wrongs of conflict. Today we see the same, and the day that Russia’s Special Operation is over, what remains of the Ukraine will have to repair the ravages of war.

The Bigger Picture.

The simple fact is that a conflict causes immense hardship to any country; roads, railways, towns and cities all being adversely affected by the military actions that happen. As has been seen in Russia’s actions, this has been kept to the minimum, yet certain tactics by the regular Ukrainian Army have also seen incredible damage caused. Whilst this may be seen as wanton destruction, it is standard military practice for retreating armies to prevent their opponents from using certain assets to their advantage.

Smaller Minds.

Elsewhere in the conflict a rather more worrying trend has become apparent. In cities such as Mariupol, it has not been the regular Ukrainian Army but extremist units being in control of towns and cities, this creating both a delicate situation with civilians as well as the Russians inheriting built-up areas with markedly fewer buildings than before. Not only that, one would expect that at least the remains of an infrastructure be in place that the occupying power can use, if for nothing no other reason than for the transport of desperately-needed humanitarian supplies. Remembering that for every war there is a peace, one has to wonder how the nazi nutjobs of the Ukrainian National Guard hope that their country will return to normal life in the future.

Planning the Pennies.

It was noted that when Crimea rejoined Russia in 2014 that the previously Ukrainian-managed infrastructure was in a shocking condition, and for all the investment by Russia to bring the Crimean Peninsula up to scratch, the same time in the Ukraine hardly saw any improvements implemented from Kiev. This was to a great degree due to the woes the economy was suffering, yet with both infrastructure and economy now reaching rock bottom, the future for what will remain of the country looks bleak at best. The poorest country in Europe just got saddled with huge additional liabilities, yet looking at some of the Ukrainian élite leaving the country with suitcases of cash, there was more money in the place than originally supposed.

Pinching Pounds, not Pennies.

Other than its location, the main reason that the Ukraine was seen as an easy target by the West was the fact that it was a ‘low hanging fruit’ with thieving politicians at the top of the tree that treated those in the east like monkeys. This, as had been seen on numerous previous occasions was certainly ripe territory for Washington when planning its color revolutions. This economically weak country still had huge potential but had for decades been run in a completely corrupt fashion. With that, DC saw that an already corrupt country could serve its needs if the new situation continued to line a number of pockets. That the pockets changed after Maidan is history, yet Kiev’s complicit élite have enabled the US to use and abuse the country to its liking for nearly a decade. This has had dire consequences across the board for all except the ruling class. Prior to the current conflict, it was widely known that the soaring cost of living meant that the average Ukrainian was having problems getting by, yet the stories now coming to light are truly shocking. The level of oppression exerted by various units of the Ukrainian armed forces is shocking the Russians, and would give the rest of the world the shivers were it not for a media blackout in the West. Many Ukrainians, and we are talking about millions of people, are elated that with Russian troops comes a breath of fresh air and promise, the excesses of their own countrymen now being the stuff of past nightmares. Whether the dream held by many of living either in Russia or within the borders of Novorossiya remains to be seen.

Planning the Pounds.

For all the troubles that are seen with roads, there will be so much more than that to be done. With bridges, railways, shopping centers, residential buildings as well as utilities and communications to bring back into working order, literally trillions will need to be spent. It surprised the author that Russia has taken the territory it has, yet the ground occupied in order to gain victory and then returned to the control of Kiev once the conflict is over may differ widely once normality returns. For all of that, the Ukrainian capital has lived from hand to mouth for nearly a decade, merely due to it being an accessory to the plans of others. A defeat by Russia will make a useful idiot into a useless one, and those who were willing to give Zelenskiy the crumbs off their table may not be planning to do so in the future if there is nothing in the deal for them.

Part Payment.

For all the investment that would be needed to rebuild the Ukraine as it was, the country that will be is a very different matter. There is no way on this earth that any part of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts (provinces) will ever be ruled by Kiev again. With Odessa, Kharkov, Kherson and other cities being under Russian control, only time will tell us where borders will lie and governments rule. With the obvious loss of territory that Kiev will suffer, it will not be paying for all of its former territory to be brought up to scratch, yet with holes in the road and even bigger holes in its budget, quite how Kiev will forge through the future will be a very difficult matter for any future leader to solve.

Movement of the Masses.

With Russia having made the moves it has and Ukrainian evacuees attempting to move across the lines into Russian rather than Ukrainian held territory, demographics will also have a great hand in shaping the future of Eastern Europe. For all the media blackout in the West, there have been thousands of clips showing normal Ukrainian people ecstatic to see Russian troops. Be it eight years of abuse and repression or the horrors that their countrymen have committed over the recent weeks of war, millions of Ukrainians hold very different opinions than they did during the days of the Maidan protests. The Ukrainian government in Kiev may be at the top of the headlines, yet the bottom line is that this conflict and the events leading to it will have changed borderlines forever.

Summary.

The war that currently rages has cost the Ukraine dearly. Both the people and country will be looking to a very different future once hostilities are over, yet across the region, it will be how current difficulties are managed in the short term that will determine its future over the longer term. A country that had a hole in its pocket now has holes all over the place and it will require more than hard work to put what remains of the country back on its feet. That the events that led to this situation were the work of the political class on both sides of the Atlantic cannot be overlooked, a whole new breed of European politician necessary to right the wrongs of the war their predecessors caused. The Ukraine has been pushed to into its current predicament by political malfeasance from near and far; should it look closer to home for its future, it could go far…